AARON KELLY - A young guy with a big voice who loves country music. His style actually lends itself well to this competition. (Some Rascal Flatts? Country flavored R&B?) His strength (his youth) is his weakness as well, Simon doesn't really like young contestants that much, and at times the pressure may hurt him. But it will also give him a loyal fanbase I'd think.
OUTLOOK -Weak contender. Should be around a long time but I wonder if he really could be good enough to win it all. Still, when the top five rolls around, I think he has a good shot to be there.
Vegas Odds: 40 to 1.
ANDREW GARCIA - Andrew (and his guitar) seemingly peaked day 1 of Hollywood week. He ripped through Paula Abdul's straight up and we all expected another David Cook type contestant, treating us week after week to great stylized performances. They have been stylized, just not great. In fact his rendition of Genie in a Bottle this week was downright annoying. (Stop doing women's songs please.) Andrew has a nice voice, and a lot of talent. He also seems totally lost right now. He clearly has the ability to do well, he just needs to find the means to make it happen.
Outlook: Uncertain leaning toward bad. He's been heading in the wrong direction for 3 weeks now, clinging to goodwill from Hollywood Day 1. That can't last forever.
Vegas Odds: 10 to 1.
CASEY JAMES - Our country star, who is still best known this season for taking off his shirt for Kara. (That moment will be his downfall, he probably helped him get known but it's overshadowed his singing.) His guitar playing was the best of anyone in the competition, but it's downplayed because seemingly ever contestant plays the guitar. If Casey is going to go anywhere in this competition, he needs to put a stamp down in the first week showing us what he is capable of week in and week out.
Outlook: Non Contender. Wouldn't shock me if he is in the Top 6 or 7, but anything beyond that would.
Vegas Odds: 7 to 1 (Kind of high IMO)
CRYSTAL BOWERSOX - A little Melissa Ethridge mixed with some Jewel? This season has been one of guitar driven folk rock, with Crystal leading the charge. There was a point where Crystal seemed possibly to become a footnote of this season, as she was hospitalized with complications due to her diabetes prior to her performance for Top 10 Week. This led to the dates of the show being flipped, and Crystal coming out the next day and wowing us all. She went from interesting singer to interesting personality to audience favorite in the span of 48 hours. Simon says everyone is chasing her. That may be true but I'm not sure everyone is that far behind. (The problem with the styles of a lot of the singers this year is it seems to lend itself to more subdued performances, which might preclude as many real "moments" from occuring.)
Outlook: Strong contender. Would be shocking if she goes out quickly.
Vegas Odds: 2 to 1. (You can basically bet Crystal or the field.)
DIDI BENAMI - Didi looked and sounded the part of a winner the first time we saw her. In Hollywood she shined, though less so. The first two weeks of the Top 24 brought her crashing down to earth. The beautiful vocals and the polish were replaced by an artist who seemed 1/10th as sure of herself as she was originally. This week she found her voice, refused to be overshadowed by Siobhan and Crystal, and looked the part of a contender once more. Which Didi is the real one?
Outlook - Dark Horse contender. She is one of the more interesting contestants to me. When she is good she is just as good as Crystal is. She has also been awful and totally lost on stage. When I first saw her I thought she could win the whole thing, by the top 10 week I was afraid she'd not make Top 12, and then Top 8 week, she was back! One of my favorites...
Vegas Odds: 20-1 (Not bad for a longshot)
KATIE STEVENS - First impression: A pretty 17 year old with a huge voice. Recent impression: A pretty 17 year old who is overwhelmed by idol and has no idea what to sing. Katie is one of those contestants who isn't really aware of what she wants to be seen as, a Diva, a folk singer, a pop star - she is still looking for herself. It makes her performances come off as very karaoke like. It's not too late to find one's style at this point for better or worse (Kris Allen style didn't really take hold till a few weeks in and he won, or a Haley Scarnato who embraced her inner sex kitten to annoy us all for a few weeks.) Katie needs to step up right away though, or she is just biding time till she goes home.
OUTLOOK: Not good. Katie has youth, a good voice, and looks the part. But she seems so lost at times.
Vegas Odds: 12 to 1
LACEY BROWN - Lacey is the prototype contestant who sticks around as if this competition were Survivor, she's not the best ever, simply not the worst each week. Quick, tell me Lacey's best (or worst) moment. Do you remember? I certainly don't. This week she was so-so and got comments of "that was your best moment yet". And that's all I think that needs to be written about her. You all get the point.
Outlook: Not good. She's boring, her niche is boring, and for her to step up it would probably put her in direct competition for Crystal or Didi's fans, which I think she has very little chance of taking.
Vegas Odds: 50 to 1 (tied for worst with Paige)
LEE DEWYZE - Lee lists his influences as Simon and Garfunkel and Eric Clapton. Lee is one of the many artists I'd expect carrying a guitar around at all times this season. Lee is a bit of an enigma to me, his personality is dull and there is just this spark missing from his performances (it's almost a theme this year). On the other hand, he's been consistently good, and he's a judges favorite, which certainly does not hurt.
Outlook: Weak contender. If Kris Allen could win, why not Lee? On the other hand, Kris Allen won a strange season which had a polarizing talent in Adam Lambert (who is going off the deep end right now, the recommending people take LSD to help be more artistic is not a good thing IMO). There is something missing in Lee that I can't place but still think will hold him back.
Vegas Odds: 7 to 1
MICHAEL LYNCHE - In a quirk of fate, Hollywood week forced Michael Lynche to miss the birth of his child. And as sure as I am that he was sad about that (anyone would be) it may turn out to be a lucky break, that moment and his emotion connected him with the audience, and he has never looked back. One of the few contestants who has not had any real bad moments (he had one average performance), he is very polished. He has a big personality in the midst of a lot of subdued contestants this year, especially among the men. Michael may have what it takes to be the next American Idol.
OUTLOOK - Strong contender. Strongest of the guys. There is something about him that is connecting with the audience. He also can sing soulful R&B songs, which everyone else seems to shy away from, and that could really help him during some of the themes.
Vegas Odds: 5 to 1.
PAIGE MILES: Paige lists her influences as Michael Jackson, Celine Dion, etc. Yet, she has leaned toward rock and folk in her performance style, to pretty consistently poor results. Simon summed her up pretty throrougly when he said, "You have so much potential yet you have no idea what type of artist you are". It's so true. On the plus side, she has one of the bigger voices in the competition. If she finds her voice, she could be something. But who expects that to happen now?
Outlook: Not good. I'm at a loss as to why she is still around. That's not a good sign.
Vegas Odds: 50 to 1.
SIOBHAN MAGNUS - Siobhan has become my favorite contestant this year. There is a drama my wife watches and the female lead is this semi insane girl who is actually extremely talented, and her quirkiness helps her talent shine through even more. That is Siobhan. There is something about her pieces that don't fit, her singing doesn't seem to fit the song choices which don't seem to fit her look or personality. But week in and week out, she is just very very good. It works. If it continues to work, she will be standing near the end.
Outlook: Strong contender. If her performances are as strong as they have been, her quirkiness will be cute. If they are not, it will come over as indulgent. (See Lilly Scott, week 3 of her and people had enough.) I believe she has a chance to win this whole thing.
Vegas Odds: 5 to 1.
TIM URBAN - The 25th contestant. (Tim was on the outside looking in when the Top 24 was picked, he made it due to someone getting disqualified.) He finally made the most of his opportunity, with a good rendition of Hallelujah (a difficult song to sing but one of the songs (like Alone) that has become an idol staple). Prior to that it would have been surprising he'd be in the Top 12, but that one performance sealed it for him. He cites Jack Johnson and John Mayer as his influences and it shows. Hopefully this week's performance was not an abberation and we have finally seen the real Tim.
Outlook: Solid contestant but not contender. He's 20, he's not bad looking and he can sing. He also has a very bland personality and 2 of his 3 performances were just "there", for lack of a better term. I can't see him winning.
Vegas Odds: 40 to 1.
What I want from this season....
What I want from this season....
1) The judges to avoid giving criticism which takes away from the performances, whether good or bad. Randy is so negative, and Ellen so positive, that Kara and Simon ARE the show right now. Simon is basically the only voice of reason. The judges need to step it up.
2) Some good theme weeks. No showtunes PLEASE. A Disney week would be great. And bring back Barry Manilow and John Bon Jovi to mentor, even if it's not there songs. They were the two mentors which actually made sure everyone was prepared to go when the show started.
3) No twists, no surprises, no turns. Play it straight in that regard.
4) Announce the next week's theme. It's so bizarre when it's the day before and no one knows the theme.
5) And i know the judges, etc. aren't supposed to help contestants but don't let people sing absolutely ridiculous choices.
6) Ditch the idol winner song as the final song of the competition. Instead, let them sing it AFTER they win the show. That way if it sucks, it doesn't make the finale flat which it seemingly does every other year.
I'll predict my winner right before the show. If you read my thoughts above, you probably get who I think it is.
JUAN
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